An annual US soy exporters’ conference wrapped up on Wednesday without any known sales to Chinese buyers, in sharp contrast to previous years where billions of dollars of the main US cash crop have been signed over to China in elaborate ceremonies.
The China-US trade dispute has effectively halted bilateral trade of soybeans and US farmers are concerned that soy export demand will fall short during their primary shipping season this autumn, when they expect to harvest a record-large crop.
Delegations from other countries including Mexico inked deals for US soybeans, but volumes were smaller than past deals with China.
A delegation of Chinese soybean importers did attend the US Soybean Export Council’s annual Global Trade Exchange conference in Kansas City, however, where they toured a Missouri farm on Tuesday, climbing aboard a John Deere combine before loading into a bus to eye nearly ripe soy plants.
The delegation, which includes many of China’s top soybean processors including COFCO and Yihai Kerry, as well as Chinese representatives of US companies Cargill Inc and Bunge, met with US farmers, industry representatives and traders.
Top importer China bought more than $12 billion in US soybeans last year, about 60 percent of US soybean exports, but has been mostly out of the market since China imposed a 25 percent tariff on all US shipments on July 6 in retaliation to US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Mu Yan Kui, COO of Yihai Kerry, said China’s 2018/19 season soybean imports from all origins could tumble to 86 million tons, from 96 million in the current season, if the trade war persists.
Hog and poultry feeders can drastically cut their demand for US soy by tapping government stocks, scaling back soymeal use in rations and using alternative feeds like sunflower or rapeseed meal, he noted.
If the trade conflict cannot be solved quickly and effectively, it will definitely reshape the global market, he told conference attendees on Wednesday.
Still, US exporters said they were not willing to walk away from hard-won business, after investing between $120 million and $130 million in Chinese market development over the past 36 years.
